Insight

Why stated preference research can misread launch demand.

Launch demand is rarely decided in isolation. Buyers compare price, risk, timing, brand trust, switching cost, and the alternative of doing nothing.

When research asks only whether people like an idea, it removes the friction that will shape the real market. The result is often inflated confidence.

Better launch research recreates trade-offs and asks people to reason from real category behaviour. Synthetic extensions are useful only after that decision context is clear.